On Friday, the Worldwide Courtroom of Justice (ICJ) will announce its determination on emergency or provisional measures in opposition to Israel in an interim verdict after South Africa filed a case in opposition to Israel accusing it of committing genocide in Gaza.
Here’s what we all know concerning the attainable rulings that the ICJ might ship, and what they could imply for Israel, Palestine, and their respective allies.
What’s South Africa’s case in opposition to Israel?
On December 29, South Africa filed an 84-page authorized case on the ICJ accusing Israel of violating the 1984 Genocide Convention throughout its near-four-month bombardment of Gaza.
Israel has dismissed the genocide allegations as “grossly distorted” and deemed them “blood libel”, saying it was appearing in self-defence and concentrating on Hamas, not Palestinian civilians.
On January 11 and 12, the ICJ carried out hearings throughout which South Africa introduced its case and, then, Israel defended itself.
Will the courtroom decide whether or not Israel is committing genocide?
The ICJ is not going to take care of the core query of whether or not Israel is committing genocide on Friday. For now, it can solely announce, at 1pm native time (12:00 GMT) whether or not it might order provisional or emergency measures in Gaza and what these measures will likely be, whereas it deliberates the case for genocide.
Consultants have stated a ruling on the general case, which is able to decide whether or not or not Israel is committing genocide, might take so long as three or 4 years.
Listed below are the attainable eventualities for what the courtroom might announce on Friday:
Might the courtroom throw out the case?
Israel argued in its response to South Africa’s ICJ allegations that the worldwide courtroom doesn’t have jurisdiction over the case.
It argued that South Africa had not communicated with Israel adequately concerning the case earlier than submitting the applying to the courtroom, as is required by the courtroom’s personal guidelines.
The Israeli consultant claimed South Africa had given it only some days to answer a notification that it was committing genocide. He stated that Tel Aviv had been open to the concept of a dialogue, however that South Africa had first rejected a written request as a consequence of a vacation, after which had replied that there was “no level” in having a dialogue.
The ICJ’s guidelines require the petitioning nation to indicate {that a} dispute exists with the nation it’s accusing, and that they’ve tried to deal with it earlier than approaching the courtroom.
If the ICJ proclaims Friday that it doesn’t have jurisdiction within the case, the particular requests made by South Africa grow to be immaterial.
What emergency measures has South Africa requested?
When it filed the case, South Africa requested the ICJ to order a sequence of provisional measures to stop violence in Gaza till the courtroom makes its ruling on the case – a course of which consultants say could take years.
A few of South Africa’s calls for are that:
- Israel droop navy operations in and in opposition to Gaza.
- Israel’s navy organisations not escalate navy operations any additional.
- Israel enable entry to ample meals, water, gasoline, shelter, hygiene and sanitation.
- Israel forestall the destruction of Palestinian life in Gaza.
- Israel not destroy proof related to South Africa’s genocide allegations in opposition to it, nor deny worldwide organisations corresponding to fact-finding missions entry to Gaza to assist protect this proof.
What emergency measures is the ICJ more likely to order?
If the courtroom does announce provisional measures, Neve Gordon, a global regulation professor at Queen Mary College of London, instructed Al Jazeera that these might cowl some or all of South Africa’s requests – or it might order solely totally different provisional measures decided by the courtroom itself.
Some commentators imagine that the courtroom could fall wanting ordering a full ceasefire. It might, as a substitute, order entry to ample humanitarian aid, Gordon stated, including that this is able to be a win for Israel.
In such a case, Israel might simply keep away from worldwide ramifications by saying it might enable extra help in, then not really doing a lot to facilitate it. Moreover, help companies have stated beforehand that the arrival of ample humanitarian help in Gaza and not using a ceasefire is unrealistic, as aid trucks have been unable to reach elements of Gaza, such because the north, as a consequence of obstacles created by Israel’s siege and violence within the enclave.
Whereas it’s unclear whether or not and what interim measures the courtroom may order, consultants have stated that, below worldwide regulation, it must order a ceasefire. “If you happen to take a look at what is occurring on-ground within the Gaza Strip, then I feel the courtroom ought to order a ceasefire,” Gordon stated.
Nonetheless, he added that “the choice made by the courtroom for my part is an entanglement between a authorized argument and a political argument”. It’s because the panel of 17 judges come from totally different nations and it’s unclear what impression, if any, the pursuits of their nations might have on their authorized judgements.
“‘How politicised is the choice?’ is a query that must be requested,” he stated.

What occurs if the ICJ orders no provisional measures?
Gordon stated he believes the courtroom will order some measures quite than none in any respect.
Nonetheless, the ICJ can select to not order interim measures. This might not imply the top of the authorized case, nevertheless. The general case for genocide will nonetheless be thought-about.
If provisional measures should not ordered, South Africa and the nations which have backed it in its criticism in opposition to Israel must strive avenues for stopping violence apart from worldwide authorized fora, because the ICJ is the best world courtroom and the supreme authorized authority, Gordon defined. This might embody taking the difficulty up with the UN Safety Council or putting authorized strain on nations offering Israel with weapons.
Alternatively, in the event that they imagine the violence is persisting and escalating, one other nation, and even South Africa once more, can file a brand new, separate case with the ICJ.
Might an ICJ ruling make any distinction for Gaza?
The ICJ’s rulings are legally binding and can’t be appealed. Nonetheless, the courtroom has no manner of implementing them and the enforcement is left to the worldwide group.
“Whether or not Israel takes the measures into consideration or not is a distinct story,” stated Gordon.
“Israel can’t attraction the courtroom’s ruling, and it must determine whether or not it abides by the courtroom’s determination or not,” he added.
If it doesn’t abide by the ruling, a member state of the UN Safety Council (UNSC) can escalate this earlier than the Council, which is able to then vote to require Israel to abide by the provisional measures.
The US might probably solid a veto on this vote, a transfer the everlasting member has repeatedly made in the past to obviate accountability for its shut ally Israel.
Nonetheless, Gordon identified {that a} decision drafted by a Safety Council member state may maintain totally different weight in contrast with a call made by the best courtroom on the planet. If the US vetoes a Safety Council decision primarily based on the ICJ determination “it can expose the duplicity of the US like no different veto earlier than”.
In a state of affairs wherein the US doesn’t veto and the UNSC passes the decision, it might have the ability to take punitive action in opposition to Israel. Previous examples of UNSC motion have included financial or commerce sanctions, arms embargoes and journey bans.
The UN constitution additionally permits the Council to go a step additional and intervene with drive. An example of this occurred in 1991 when a US-led navy alliance was created to reverse the invasion of Kuwait by the Iraqi chief, Saddam Hussein.
An ICJ ruling on the provisional measures in Gaza might probably be actionable, subsequently. Nonetheless, it might be as much as the worldwide group to implement it.