Latest battlefield victories have supporters of Sudan’s military believing it will possibly flip the tide in opposition to the paramilitary Speedy Assist Forces, but consultants are ambivalent.
On March 12, the military recaptured the national radio and television building in Omdurman, Sudan’s second largest metropolis and one-third of the nationwide capital area.
The victory got here weeks after the military broke an RSF siege to retake different neighbourhoods in Omdurman.
“I wouldn’t be tremendous optimistic, as a result of it’s one factor to take over territory and it’s fairly one other to carry on to territory,” mentioned Hagar Ali, an skilled on military-civilian relations in Sudan and a PhD candidate on the German Institute for International and Space Research.
Regardless of the warning, the military’s current victories do appear to forged doubt over the RSF’s capability to overcome the whole nation, which had appeared probably after it captured Gezira state in December.
Dropping the very important breadbasket state and aid hub was a serious blow to the military. It raised critical questions about its ability to protect civilians from the RSF, a gaggle accused of atrocities resembling abstract killings, sexual violence and armed robberies.
However the military’s recapture of the radio and tv station is restoring some religion in its capabilities.
Controlling the narrative
Taking the nationwide radio and tv is of specific significance as a result of it’s the constructing from which army leaders have traditionally introduced their coups to the nation.
It may now function a useful gizmo to assist the military’s conflict effort, consultants and Sudanese commentators advised Al Jazeera.
A Sudanese journalist in River Nile state, who requested to not be recognized for concern of reprisals from the military, believes members of Sudan’s Islamic motion – who dominated for 30 years underneath former President Omar al-Bashir – will attempt to management radio and tv to unfold their narrative of the conflict.
“In the beginning of the conflict, the military lacked an in depth media marketing campaign, at the least in comparison with the RSF which made use of the media sphere to help their conflict. All consideration is now on how the military will use the radio and tv constructing,” they advised Al Jazeera.
“I believe [al-Bashir-era] officers will definitely take part in controlling the content material,” the journalist added.
Since conflict erupted between the military and the RSF in April 2023, Bashir-era figures have re-emerged to help the military’s conflict effort. Members of Sudan’s Islamic motion management the finance ministry and are believed to carry sway within the overseas ministry.
Many have reportedly aided recruitment campaigns and mobilised militias to battle alongside the military.
The autumn of Gezira additionally helped the recruitment effort as 1000’s of younger males – and a few youngsters – took up arms in self-defence or joined military recruitment camps to deploy in opposition to the RSF.
Combating for a bonus
The army remains to be preventing from a big drawback regardless of its current victories, in keeping with Ali.
In cities like Khartoum, she mentioned, the RSF is extra cellular and capable of conceal in alleyways, properties and buildings to keep away from the military’s air strikes.
In huge open areas like Darfur – which is usually managed by the RSF – military plane have a clearer view of targets, Ali mentioned, however they’re additionally clear targets for anti-aircraft weapons.
Jonas Horner, an skilled on Sudan who has labored with varied suppose tanks such because the Worldwide Disaster Group, was extra optimistic concerning the military’s possibilities.
“My impression is that there’s momentum right here – and my different accompanying sense is that it’s largely attributable to a lift in troops and know-how that seems to be coming from Iran as a result of the military can’t get it from elsewhere,” he advised Al Jazeera.
The weapons Horner was referring to incorporate Iranian drones. He additionally speculated that al-Bashir-era figures mobilised fighters from an analogous ideological background to battle the RSF alongside the military.
“Most of the fighters battling the RSF are extremely motivated Islamist forces looking for to reclaim Sudan. That ideological motivation counts for lots subsequent to those that are there for pay, as many RSF fighters are,” Horner advised Al Jazeera.
Counteroffensive
The Sudanese military’s current victories is also the zenith of the military’s battlefield success, in keeping with Hamid Khalafallah, a Sudanese analyst and PhD candidate on the College of Manchester.
He isn’t optimistic that the military could make vital good points in opposition to the RSF.
“I’m undecided they’ve the capabilities to do far more. The radio and tv constructing is big for them, however it’s not a metropolis,” he advised Al Jazeera, of hypothesis that the military is planning to launch a counteroffensive on Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira.

Khalafallah added that the RSF is unfold throughout Gezira, the place an web blackout – that civilians blame on the RSF – makes documenting human rights abuses by the paramilitary tough.
The RSF has reportedly killed lots of of civilians in Gezira whereas looting properties and stealing automobiles. They’ve additionally attacked farmers and gang raped girls, in keeping with native activists.
RSF chief, Mohamad Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, claims “rogue” components within the RSF are committing abuses in Gezira, however that stories are exaggerated.
One other Sudanese journalist who requested Al Jazeera to not disclose their title for concern of reprisal from the military, mentioned most individuals are on the lookout for any signal that the military can defend them.
They acknowledged that regardless of the military counting on Islamic figures and fighters from the al-Bashir regime, individuals would really feel safer dwelling underneath army rule.
“Folks round me desire the army versus the RSF.
“However in the long run, they simply hope that [Sudan] can return to peace and safety someday.”