More and more within the panorama of pro-Ukrainian analysts, you see disenchanted folks predicting that the siege of Avdiivka is quickly turning into ‘Bakhmut 2.0’.
On a quick and shallow studying of this reference we perceive that they concern the town will fall with lots of losses for Kiev – and that’s precisely the case.
However there’s extra to this: in Bakhmut – and likewise in Mariupol – there was the identical dynamic at play the place, at a sure level in the course of the siege, the army management of Ukraine knew it was futile to persist, and wished to retreat saving the elite forces there to struggle one other day, in higher fortified positions.
In each these cities’ circumstances – and now Avdiivka – the civilian management round President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted its forces put up a valiant struggle ‘to the top,’ which they did.
Whereas it may be validly argued that by retreating continuous, they’d quickly find yourself with none territory, then again, the ineffective sacrifice of a number of the most battle-worthy Ukrainian troops was sorely missed when it was time for them to launch the summer time offensive.
Now, in Avdiivka, Zelensky has fired too-independent Common Valery Zaluzhny, and new appointee Oleksandr Syrsky will definitely heed the President’s name for a determined protection.
It seems that Ukraine is certainly reinforcing Avdiivka, reportedly with among the finest brigades within the Ukrainian military, the third Assault Brigade.
Forbes reported:
“Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of the Tavriya group of forces in Avdiivka, announced the reinforcement on Telegram on Saturday. ‘We strengthen the blocking line, arrange further firing positions and use contemporary efficient forces’, Tarnavskyi wrote. ‘Logistical supply continues’.
That the Ukrainians would reinforce Avdiivka was not a foregone conclusion. In apparently selecting to remain and struggle, Ukrainian forces are accepting huge danger.
After 4 months of laborious combating, Russian troops from the 2nd and forty first Mixed Arms Armies lastly breached Avdiivka—a key Ukrainian stronghold simply 5 miles northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk—earlier this month and approached inside just a few hundred yards of the primary street by which the Ukrainian garrison, centered on the one hundred and tenth Mechanized Brigade, will get provides into the town.”
The selection is to tug again the one hundred and tenth Brigade’s survivors or reinforce them to attempt to push the superior Russian forces away from the availability traces.
The choice is for certain to have been made away from the battlefield. Unpopular ‘the butcher’ Syrsky, it might be remembered, has a repute for accepting excessive casualties in cussed, static fights.
The response might embrace the deployment of components of the third Assault Brigade. Since December, the unit has been in reserve in Kramatorsk, 50 miles north of Avdiivka.
“The two,000-person brigade fought one of many final profitable battles of Ukraine’s 2023 offensive and liberated the city of Andriivka, 25 miles north of Avdiivka. The victory earned the year-old brigade a possibility to relaxation, retrain, recruit new troopers and, if rumors are true, re-equip with American-made M-2 combating automobiles.”
The width of the hall to provide most of #Avdiivka is lower than 5 km. Ukraine should both maintain (and even higher: widen) that hall, or it ought to begin withdrawing its troops from the almost-encircled elements of the city. pic.twitter.com/lUY1KC1LgX
— Julian Röpcke (@JulianRoepcke) February 12, 2024
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